If US Gold Reserves return to 100% backing of the Fed Balance Sheet – as has occurred TWICE previously in 1938 & 1980 – the US dollar gold price is headed OVER $25,000/oz before the gold bull ends!
Chart courtesy Incrementum, AG @RonStoeferle
The ratio of US Gold Reserves, as a percent of the Fed’s TOTAL Balance Sheet, recently bottomed BELOW 10%. This was a HISTORICALLY low ratio – far below any level seen in the past century.
In fact, the ratio of US Gold Reserves to the Fed’s Total Balance Sheet has SURPASSED 100% on TWO separate occasions over the past century- first in 1938, and again in 1980.
This suggests that gold was significantly undervalued in late 2022-early 2023 – even more so than at “Brown’s Bottom” in the late 1990’s when compared to the total value of The Fed’s Balance Sheet.
What would gold prices look like today if the price of gold once again rose to reach 100% backing of The Fed’s Total Balance Sheet?
Let’s take a look:
As of the most recent Federal Reserve H.4.1 release (data for Wednesday, April 22, 2026), the Fed’s balance sheet total assets stand at approximately $6.707 trillion.
This figure comes from the official FRED series WALCL (Total Assets: Total Assets (Less Eliminations from Consolidation).
The Fed’s Balance Sheet actually PEAKED over $9 TRILLION in 2022. The Fed’s balance sheet has been brought down over $2 TRILLION over the past 4 years due to its Quantitative Tightening Policy, which ended in late 2025.
The Fed’s total balance sheet primarily consists of Treasury securities ($4.4 trillion), mortgage-backed securities ($2.0 trillion), and other assets.
The Fed’s Balance Sheet actually PEAKED over $9 TRILLION in 2022. The Fed’s balance sheet has been brought down over $2 TRILLION over the past 4 years due to its Quantitative Tightening Policy, which ended in late 2025.
The Fed’s total balance sheet primarily consists of Treasury securities ($4.4 trillion), mortgage-backed securities ($2.0 trillion), and other assets.
In order to calculate US Gold Reserves as a percent of the Fed’s Total Balance Sheet, we simply need to divide the total US gold holdings by The Fed’s Total Balance Sheet.
Official U.S. gold reserves currently sit at approximately 261.5 million fine troy ounces (about 8,133.5 metric tons).
(We are HIGHLY SUSPICIOUS that the US Gov’t actually still holds 261.5 million ounces of UNENCUMBERED (meaning NOT rehypothecated 300x over) gold reserves- but for the sake of the calculation, we will assume that the US actually still holds 261.5 million oz of gold bullion).
US Total Gold Reserves Breakdown (as of March 31, 2026, latest Treasury data):
(We are HIGHLY SUSPICIOUS that the US Gov’t actually still holds 261.5 million ounces of UNENCUMBERED (meaning NOT rehypothecated 300x over) gold reserves- but for the sake of the calculation, we will assume that the US actually still holds 261.5 million oz of gold bullion).
US Total Gold Reserves Breakdown (as of March 31, 2026, latest Treasury data):
- Mint-Held Deep Storage (bullion bars):
- Fort Knox, KY: 147,341,858.382 oz
- West Point, NY: 54,067,331.379 oz
- Denver, CO: 43,853,707.279 oz
- Mint-Held Working Stock (coins, blanks, etc.): 2,783,218.656 oz
- Federal Reserve Bank-Held (primarily NY Vault bullion + minor coins/display): ~13.45 million oz
US Gold Reserves as a percent of The Fed’s 4/22/2026 Balance Sheet if backing again reached 100%:
$6,707,000,000,000 ÷ 261,500,000 ounces = $25,648.18/oz!
Even just a return to the Median of 36.5% backing would mean a US dollar gold price of $9,361.52/oz!
That calculation is based on TODAY’s Total Fed Balance Sheet – after 3-4 years of balance sheet contraction due to QT.
The Fed’s balance sheet PRIOR to QT was over $9 TRILLION.
The calculation based on a return of The Fed’s Balance Sheet to $9 Trillion is
$9,000,000,000,000 ÷ 261,500,000 ounces = $34,416.83/oz!
We suspect that after the next round of monetary easing is completed following the coming oil supply crisis, The Fed’s Total Balance Sheet will be WELL NORTH of $9 Trillion – WE EXPECT IT TO SOAR OVER $20 TRILLION!
We will let you perform the gold calculation with a Total Fed Balance Sheet north of $20 Trillion on your own…
SILVER TO $350-$500? MICHAEL OLIVER’S NOT BULLISH ENOUGH!
INVESTMENT DEMAND WILL DRIVE SILVER TO 4 FIGURES & INTO A MANIA!!
