“The Silver Guru” David Morgan sat down with The Silver Trade Insider for an EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW.
90% of the gains in 10% of the time: David explains why he believes that THE SILVER BULL MARKET HAS AROUND A YEAR AND A HALF REMAINING – during which we will see the majority of the entire bull market gains in silver:
“We will get back up into the $90’s and into the triple digits, and will overtake the $120 high.
This market is NOT DONE YET!
We’re in an early transition phase, NOT THE SPECULATIVE BLOW-OFF!
Silver’s Bull Run is FAR FROM OVER!”
Morgan drops an absolute BOMBSHELL, warning that THE US GOVERNMENT WILL STOCKPILE SILVER!!!
Are the BIGGEST MOVES for Silver Still Ahead?
The Morgan Report’s David Morgan joins The Silver Trade Insider for an EXCLUSIVE MUST WATCH INTERVIEW!
Jon:
Lets get right into it and put you on the spot David!
All of the TA experts just held silver’s funeral.
They’re all claiming that a final blow-off top is in, and silver is finished for the next 2 decades. Did we just witness the final blow-off top for silver, or are we simply in a sharp correction in an ongoing bull market that had become over extended?
David Morgan: Yes, it has had a blow-off temporarily and we will have to rebuild a base. I think we’re going to go into a trading range- call it $75-$85 for a week, 2 weeks, a couple of months maybe- it’s not going to take that long.
But we will get back up into the $90’s and into the triple digits, and we will overtake the $120 high. This market is NOT DONE YET!
There are several reasons for it:
Fundamentally, gold’s leading the way, and the gold trade is really just started to get backed by the powers that be.
And what I mean by that is the central banks have been buying gold hand over first for a couple of years continuing this year. Now Wall Street is promoting gold if you can believe it! They’re calling it the debasement trade!
The first time you and I talked we talked about currency debasement. Now it’s a new buzzword. On top of that you have portfolio changes recommendations going out talking about 60/20/20 between stocks/bonds/and gold. That’s HUGE!
Silver is on their critical minerals list, so it’s a pretty logical assumption to make that the US Government WILL STOCKPILE SILVER! How much, we don’t know. How fast, we don’t know.
And then you’ve got these 401(k)s where after February 1st, they are allowed to offer gold and silver as part of their investment make up. That doesn’t mean that they are required to do it, or that all of them will do it, but some of them will, and of course there will be pressure from their employees to provide the access.
So you’ve got investment demand from defined benefit programs, the critical minerals is going to stock a stock at some point- that often spills over into other nation states! If you’re thinking about at some point, say Australia- they might say, “Hey wait a minute, if silver’s strategic for them (the US), is it strategic for us?” So that could spread as well.
From a fundamental aspect, this is FAR FROM OVER.
I love being in the middle, because I’ve always looked at fundamentals from the top down when analyzing the markets, and I’ve looked at technical analysis work most of my life. I think they both have value.
To the technical guys, everything’s on the chart. The fundamental guys say, “I don’t care about the charts.” But they both have value.
It (the recent silver price crash) did scare off a lot of people. It probably scared off people who were on minimal margin, who will probably never want to touch silver again. But as far as the long term trend, this is far from over.
Jon:
It definitely pulled out the excess froth for sure.
Adding just a few fundamentals to what you mentioned,
-We’re still in a global supply deficit
-We’re still seeing shortages around the world
-The SHFE Silver Inventory is down to ~11 million oz
-COMEX Registered Silver just broke below 100 million oz
-China’s dumping US Treasuries
-Silver Lease Rates remain elevated between 2-6%
-The USDX looks like its rolling over
-Kevin Warsh just confirmed that the Fed is going to coordinated with the US Treasury for yield curve control
We have a ton of fundamentals that say silver still has a lot of room to run here.
David:
Absolutely. If you make the currency worthless, what’s the price of gold and silver? I don’t think we’re going to go THAT FAR, but you’re right. It’s really, really SAD, because I want it to be otherwise.
Every study that’s ever been done of a non-backed currency has ended in hyperinflation. That doesn’t exempt the US Dollar. Now I think that they will probably try to install a new system before we hit that absolute.
We continue to do the wrong thing, and that is to print more, and try to solve a debt problem by increasing the amount of debt!
Jon: I’d like to get your thoughts on the silver mining shares David. Silver just completed a historic rally, passing $120/oz, and yet the mining shares just BOTTOMED vs silver. And yet they also only dropped about half as much as silver itself did in the past week when silver prices fell from $121 to $64. Is the trading action in the mining shares another sign that the metals have not yet reached the mania phase David?
David:
I do! Normally the shares would actually be a precursor to the metals.
In other words, you might start to see the mining shares get a lift before the metals start to move up. That held for quite some time, but it doesn’t always.
Silver actually used to LEAD gold, believe it or not. Now it follows it.
Gold moves first, silver follows, and then the miners. The miners not increasing to the extent of silver is a HUGE CLUE – if you know what to look for- that
1. The bull market isn’t over
2. Silver’s not valued properly
The way to catch up to people who bought silver at $50 or $35 is to buy the underlying miners. But you really want to start with a portfolio built upon blue chips. Where you’re buying stuff with metals in the ground, you know what the margins are, you know what the profit profile looks like, is safe jurisdictions. So you want to look at companies that have several mines in their portfolio. Like Pan American Silver for example.
There is that opportunity. That happened in 2006, and then in 2009 to the 2011 peak we saw the same thing.
We’re in an early transition phase, NOT THE SPECULATIVE BLOW-OFF!
Jon:
Lets talk a little bit about the big players in the silver market David.
For decades, silver price suppression by the cartel – which has been documented extensively by our good friends at GATA Chris Powell and Bill Murphy- was successful in controlling and capping the price of gold and silver.
But the cartel lost control of gold last spring. They then lost control of silver later last fall.
It looks like we have China facing off against the US and the Trump Administration in a battle for critical minerals supply. I’ve dubbed it WORLD WAR SILVER.
Silver has been called the banking system’s Achilles heel.
What are your thoughts here David?
Is China simply attempting to acquire as much silver as possible for its industry, or are we witnessing some sort of strategic attack by China on the biggest vulnerability in the US financial system?
David: The truth is I don’t know, but I’ll give you my thoughts.
For decades, myself and others have said we’re ONLY going to get true price discovery in silver and gold based on the physical demand.
Once the physical demand supersedes the paper paradigm, we will find out what the true value of the metals are.
That started from a fundamental perspective when the US sanctioned Russia’s $300 Billion of currency reserves in 2022. That was the most stupid thing ever done!
That was a HUGE SIGNAL-almost a mini EXPLOSION- for world leaders to recognize what the US COULD do to them!
And therefore, I don’t want my safe harbor to be the US Treasury market anymore, it’s gold!
From that point until now, you’ve seen more and more emphasis on restructuring out of Treasuries and into gold by various nation states.
On the SILVER SIDE, it’s very interesting. FINALLY, what we’ve seen out of China is this continual buying of physical metal which has basically set the price. It did so for a few months. Now we’ve seen that happen in the retail market a couple of times with the silver squeeze etc.
But that was on the retail side- it wasn’t 1,000 oz bars.
Right now, the big purpose of the SHFE is to bring physical metal into the market for industrial use. That’s what I’ve been able to determine through my market research.
We have industrial demand, and retail demand.
What’s happened in China is the industrial demand I don’t think is satisfied. We’re at a low right now. I think the Chinese population has awoken to the fact that gold’s great, but silver is also valuable.
So now we’re seeing a lot more investment demand coming out of China.
Whether its deliberate or not- I don’t really care! Because demand is demand. Industrial and investment demand could be like a game of checkers, each leaping over one another, FEEDING on each other.
Most industrial demand really doesn’t care about what the price is.
They care about how many oz can they buy, how many oz do I need, and I need to have access to in the next 3-5 years, and how am I going to obtain that?
Am I going to buy a silver mine? Am I going to buy a silver mine and stockpile it?
The investment side has a different perspective: capital preservation, & capital appreciation.
Those 2 factors working in silver’s favor has it moving in the Asian markets in a system where its now taking control.
Having said that, I must emphasize that while the physical market did take control for months, the PAPER PARADIGM WON THE SHORT TERM BATTLE! It hasn’t won the war yet!
We got really overextended in January. Silver went up 140+% in 2025.
But it went up almost 70% in the month of January!
To be objective, fair, and truthful- if you show me that chart without a name on it- I would tell you that’s coming down. It’s coming down, and it’s coming down hard. And that’s what happened.
You can manage the price at times, its been done again and again- its in the public domain, there have been fines, jail sentences, etc.
If you don’t think there’s been management of the silver price I don’t know what to tell you.
But I want to point out, you cannot MANIPULATE THE LONG TERM TREND!
We’re in a back and forth. We went from physical demand controlling the market, to the paper markets winning a battle.
I think it’s ALREADY SHIFTING BACK TO PHYSICAL DEMAND!
We might have a couple of back and forths before we get what I call
“True price discovery” which we witnessed- but I think it got a little ahead of itself. And what happens then will be really interesting! What happens to the LBMA, what will happen to COMEX, what will happen to the SHFE?
Will there be a universal price? Will they put in limits perhaps where you can ONLY HEDGE metal that you actually own- which is pretty close to what the Shanghai Exchange just did.
I think that’s more fair. I’m really not against hedging. Hedging is different than speculating. If I have 10,000 oz my portfolio and I think $120 is a pretty high price and I want to write a put against the exact amount, that’s a hedge. But if I think silver’s coming down and I put up 10 puts against it, that’s speculation. It happens more in silver than in any other commodity, but its across the board.
Jon:
I would agree. It’s interesting though what we saw in the 3 weeks leading up to the price crash. We saw across the entire silver industry their hedging starting to take down EVERYTHING!
It started with the refiners, then spread to local coin shops, then wholesalers, and even the large bullion dealers.
Hedging Silver’s price move from $20 to $120 used up all their capital. We saw it in the entire industry!
David:
That’s right! If you make a 2 way market and you buy silver, you have $25 or $50 million in the bank, but you have a credit line. You come to me and you dump off $20 million worth of silver in 2 weeks time. I’ve got the credit line, I buy it for you, I try to hedge it (which is more and more difficult), and now I’ve put it on my shelves and who wants to buy it?
Well in North America there was a lot more selling than buying for a long time! So basically you were just stockpiling silver.
They’re out of cash! You can only borrow so much money! If your credit line’s $20 million and you already bought $20 million worth of silver, what are you gonna do? You’re not gonna buy anymore! I can’t!
It shows how small the silver market truly is in the grand scheme of things, and also the vulnerability of the financial system at large. It could have happened in another commodity. All of a sudden capital markets weren’t able to cope with the VELOCITY of the movement of metal!
Jon:
That’s why when I cofounded SD Bullion (I don’t own it anymore) but when I started it, I came up with a strategy to hedge our inventory based on OUNCES of metal instead of dollars.
The whole rest of the industry hedges for dollars.
That puts you in a position that when silver doubles, triples, goes up 5x, you don’t have those same type of capital constraints that hedging for dollars puts you in.
David:
That’s definitely thinking outside the box and old school!
If you go back to my days that’s the way many worked their business.
I mean spreads are pretty small!
Jon:
There have been rumors that JPMorgan has flipped NET LONG while moving their metals desk to Singapore. According to Ed Steer the COT data reveals that the 5 large US banks have all collectively flipped NET long.
JPMorgan is also helping finance the new critical metals (ie SILVER) smelting facility that the Department of Defense has commissioned.
I don’t know if you remember this David, but Jim Sinclair maintained that when the final END GAME for gold and silver finally arrived, he emphatically believed that the biggest beneficiaries would be the big banks who have always been naked SHORT the metals.
He stated that they would flip LONG just before the massive revaluation of gold and silver arrived.
Are we witnessing this exact scenario play out David?
Has JPMorgan actually flipped LONG gold and silver?
David:
I don’t think they have. I’m looking at that on the screen right now. Let me share it:
This is the latest COT. The commercials are NET SHORT 81,000 contracts, and 35,000 long. So the math on that is we’re 2,000 contracts GREATER NET SHORT than we were on January 30th!
So the banks are NOT net long!
Do we know if the total picture is net short or net long? We do not know.
JPM could be net long by being long in London, or maybe long in Shanghai.
This is what Ted Butler spent his life on is looking at this board.
From this report we know for a fact that the big banks are NET SHORT on the COMEX.
Jon: I want to bring back something you’ve said in the past. You’ve said that in major bull markets, 90% of the move comes in 10% of the time.
Where do you think we’re in in regards to that 10% of time timeframe?
David:
I really think we’re getting close! It’s not exactly 90/10 but it’s a pretty good rule of thumb. You look at the stock blowoffs or the real estate blowoffs- there’s usually a big move in a very short period of time.
So if the bull market in gold started at $252 in 2000 and here we are in 2026- that’s 26 years- 10% of that is 2.5 years.
We started the gold breakout at $2,000/oz maybe? Add 2 years to that, where are we?
Silver broke out 3 years after gold it, believe it or not- $5.55/oz in September of 2003. So we’ve got a 23 year bull market in silver.
So that’s 2.3 years, and we just broke out, what, 6 months ago?
I’ll drop it to 2 years- maybe we have a year and a half left?
I really do think we will get an acceleration. You see that in the rate of inflation’s change.
Hemmingway’s “How do you go broke- very slowly and then of a sudden”
That’s how you see price discovery in these metals!
I’m still VERY BULLISH, and I’m not one who believes we have another 10-20 years of bull market.
Because the COLLAPSE of the system is how we function with one another!
Jon:
I’d like to shift gears for a minute David and discuss Iran. Trump promised Iranian protesters who were getting slaughtered by the Islamic Regime that Help was on the way.
Trump hates war, and he is always working on The Art of the Deal, but The ayatollahs aren’t giving Trump any room to save face and agree to some sort of a deal.
As much doesn’t like war, I think Trump hates looking like a chump even more than he hates war.
What happens to silver in the event that a massive war breaks out in the Middle East between the US and Iran- with Iran likely immediately dragging Israel into it as well? Gold I think instantly goes vertical the moment a war begins between the US and Iran. How might silver react?
Would a major war in the middle east be a Black Swan for silver that we need to watch out for, or is it likely to send silver vertical along with gold?
David:
I think silver would probably move up, but it’s hard to know.
I think silver would have a safe haven status. I think the attitude in the Asian markets is that silver is just as good as gold but cheaper, I think I want it for a safe haven status. India has always thought of it that way.
Am I absolutely sure? I agree with you Jon, that I think it’s LIMIT UP IN GOLD if you have a breakout war with Iran, God forbid- and silver I THINK would go up.
Jon:
One more question about the bottlenecks in the refining industry. We saw Refiners refusing to accept first 90%, and then ANY SILVER. We talked about how the stress started to spread to coin dealers who stopped purchasing metals, and was even beginning to spread to the larger wholesalers right as the January 30th smash hit. The credit lines became completely tapped out at nearly every institution in the industry!
If silver takes out $120 on the next leg up and makes new all-time highs, what type of havoc might silver wreck on the financial system- both on the banking system, and on the silver market itself as high prices trigger liquidity constraints? What does it look like if silver goes to $250?
David:
If you’re in the mining business its good for you!
If you’re in the retail/wholesale industry- it depends on how you hedge and what your supply is! I like the fact that you hedged in ounces and not in fiat! I think that’s very important and I hope people understood what you were conveying to them.
As far as what would it do to the banks, I have to remain neutral.
Not that I love banks! The banking elite are a bunch of megalomaniacs who deserve to be put away! But I don’t know what their structure would be.
My gut says they got SHOCKED on this last move in silver where it got away from them! I think they MAY have learned a lesson. They MAY not be as anxious to speculate to the level that they’ve been accustomed to.
They’ve been accustomed to running their delta and gamma programs in the options market- which is leverage on top of leverage- to control the market and get it to move the direction they want it to, almost any time at will.
THOSE DAYS ARE OVER!
I think if you are the JP Morgan, Jamie Dimon level, you might be willing to sacrifice some more of your traders to go to jail, but you don’t want your bank to be any more vulnerable. So my gut is I don’t think we will see having the physical market taking control have the impact taking down the banks that it might have in the past.
Jon:
Before we let you go, can you tell our viewers who might not be familiar with The Morgan Report a little more about your industry leading analysis, and how they can subscribe?
David:
The main landing page is theMorganReport.com
I do 2-3 interviews a week on average, and they’re all free!
All you have to do is go to theMorganReport.com and hit the Blog tab.
It’s better to be on our mailing list because I am shadow banned on some of the platforms.
I also spent about 2.5 years doing a documentary called Silver Sunrise.
It’s very pertinent to what’s happening now.
It’s at www.SilverSunrise.tv
It’s free. Comment section’s open.
We need to get back to basics. We need sound money. We need it for everyone for many, many reasons.
What matters at the end of the day- it doesn’t matter how much gold and silver you can keep, if you lost the most important thing to all of us- being able to SAY what you want to say, go where you want to go, and buy what you want to buy, or be with you who want to be.
In other words, if you lost your FREEDOM, it doesn’t really matter how much material wealth you’ve saved. And I still believe that in my heart of heart!
