The Former Head of JP Morgan’s Metals Desk Robert Gottlieb weighs in on this morning’s SLAM on silver prices: 

“Play it again, Sam…”

After headlines around an imminent ceasefire deal briefly calmed markets, the U.S. then carried out what it described as defensive strikes on Iran, putting us right back into the same macro script.

For precious metals, the market’s reaction has become familiar: #Gold and #Silver come under pressure, not because geopolitical risk disappears, but because the inflation/rates transmission mechanism takes over.

The concern is straightforward:
Higher crude oil prices feed inflation fears Inflation fears push U.S. yields higher
A stronger USD follows
The market begins pricing in a higher-for-longer Fed

That combination is a clear near-term headwind for precious metals.

The irony is that, fundamentally, ongoing geopolitical instability should be constructive for gold and silver over the longer term, however in the short term, markets are focused less on the safe-haven narrative and more on the macro consequences of sustained energy inflation.

Until there is genuine clarity around Iran and a stabilization in crude, we may continue to see this same frustrating pattern repeat itself.

As part of the WatchGold.org soft launch, we’ll be continuously adding new data sets, analytics, and research, and your feedback is incredibly important. Our goal is to bring market structure, flows, data, and research into one centralized platform to help users better understand what’s really driving gold, silver, and PGM price action.

Views are my own, for informational and educational purposes only, and not investment advice.”