Former Head of JP Morgan’s Metals Desk Robert Gottlieb notes that investors have become too focused on daily geopolitical headlines, while overlooking underlying strength in the PHYSICAL gold & silver markets:
“Weekly #Gold and #Silver Recap
More of the Same as Large ETF and Futures Positions Continue to Be Reduced
Despite another week of market volatility driven by ongoing Iran headlines and geopolitical uncertainty, the underlying precious metals story remains largely unchanged.
As we’ve discussed previously, investors continue to reduce positions across both ETFs and futures markets.
While that may appear negative on the surface, it is also helping to clear out excess positioning and build a stronger foundation for the next leg higher.
At one point this week, it looked like gold might test its 200-day moving average, but we never came close.
The attached 5-day Gold vs. U.S. Dollar Index chart from WatchGold.org highlights how resilient gold has remained despite significant market swings.
The CME also lowered margin requirements as implied volatility continues to decline, with 1-month gold volatility falling to approximately 20.4% and silver volatility to 44.5%.
Meanwhile, physical flows remain constructive. Gold continues to leave CME warehouses, with another 125,000 ounces reportedly shipped out this week.
At the same time, China’s net gold imports through Hong Kong increased significantly in April compared with March, reinforcing that physical demand remains healthy despite the recent consolidation.
Major Takeaway:
While headline-driven volatility continues to dominate day-to-day trading, the combination of declining speculative positioning, ongoing physical gold movements, and improving Asian demand suggests the longer-term bullish fundamentals remain firmly intact.
Question:
Are investors becoming too focused on the daily geopolitical headlines while overlooking the continued strength in the underlying physical gold market?
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Views are my own and are provided for informational and educational purposes only. This is not investment advice.
