TD Cowen Sees Firm Pricing, Expanding Reactor Demand and Potential Supply Constraints
Uranium’s long-term contract price has reached a record $96 per pound, exceeding the previous nominal high of $95 set in 2007, according to TD Cowen’s latest Uranium Monitor. Spot uranium is also firm near $89.60/lb, up roughly 10% year to date, while term prices have gained about 12%.
The current term price is also slightly above TD Cowen’s own $95/lb long-term uranium assumption. The bank notes that the comparison with 2007 is nominal, and that the significant inflation accumulated since then leaves room for both spot and term prices to move higher if the market shifts more materially into deficit.
Demand Continues to Grow
Mine and secondary supply are also expected to increase, but the balance becomes tighter toward the end of the forecast period. Total supply rises from about 204 million pounds in 2026 to a peak of 298 million pounds in 2034 before falling to 281 million pounds in 2035. Against projected demand of 322 million pounds, TD Cowen forecasts a 42-million-pound deficit in 2035.
Long-term contracting matters because nuclear utilities typically secure fuel well before it is required. Uranium procurement also sits within a broader fuel cycle that includes conversion, enrichment and fabrication, so utilities must consider availability across several stages rather than simply relying on the spot uranium market.
That makes the record term price particularly relevant. It reflects the price at which longer-duration supply is being secured rather than only the cost of immediately available material.
Kazatomprom Adds Supply Uncertainty
The Firm also highlights a potential supply issue involving Kazatomprom, the world’s largest uranium producer. The company maintained its preliminary 2026 production and sales guidance in its first-half results, but announced a six-to-12-month delay to the planned TQZ sulfuric-acid plant.
The facility had been expected to begin operating in the first quarter of 2027 but is now scheduled for sometime between the third quarter of 2027 and the first quarter of 2028 following a regulatory suspension of construction. Sulfuric acid is an important input for Kazakhstan’s in-situ recovery operations, and TD Cowen says a downward revision to 2027 uranium output is possible, although the eventual effect remains uncertain.
