Brent nearly tagged 100 dollars. Copper printed a fresh record. The official CPI has lived above the Fed’s 2 percent target for 65 months.
Schiff’s question is the one SilverTrade should print. “If we couldn’t get down to two when oil prices were falling, how the he double hockey sticks are we gonna get down to two when they’re rising?”
Then the warning. “Look out, because there could be some serious carnage in the bond market and then in the stock market.”
The commodity tape is his evidence that the 2 percent story is already dead. Oil headlines get the cameras.Copper is the tell. It closed strong after an all time print, up close to 60 percent since Trump took office, and Schiff still called it cheap in real money.
People who watch the gold copper ratio, he said, keep waiting for gold to fall and meet copper.
“I think it’s the other way around. Copper’s gonna go up to meet gold.”
Hold gold near $4400 and copper would need something like 11 dollars a pound just to look historically normal, another 60 percent from here. “Gold is real money. Everything you buy with funny money, with Federal Reserve notes, costs more. But it’s not because the goods are getting more expensive. It’s because the currency that you’re using to buy the goods is becoming less valuable.”
Gold will not sit at 4400. “Gold is going higher, which means copper is going a lot higher.” Nickel, zinc, tungsten, cobalt, and the farm complex follow the same script.
He reminded listeners that the cakewalk pitch was regime change in a fortnight. “I think we’re further away from victory now than we were when we first dropped the bombs.” Ships on the bottom of the ocean do not equal a new government. “It’s the same regime. It’s not regime change.”
Scott Bessent promising 40 or 50 dollar oil after the shooting stops got no courtesy. “This guy just lies.” Schiff said the whole sales pitch is “one lie after another,” including the idea that this war ends on a calendar convenient for CPI.
The rest of the bill shows up in trade and in the Treasury market before it shows up in the S&P.China just posted a record surplus. August exports jumped 25 percent year over year, including a 34 percent surge to the United States, which Schiff reads as tariffs pricing Americans out of the cheap goods rather than bringing factories home.
He said he got the receipt in real life. The courier billed him for the tariff, then billed him again to process the tariff. At the same time the hyperscalers that used to park cash in Treasuries are now borrowing from the same pool Washington needs, while interest costs already run about 1.2 trillion dollars a year. PPI and CPI were the next two landmines.
A hot print hits duration first. The market had been pricing something like 90 percent odds of a hike. Schiff did not think the Fed would deliver, and he thought 25 basis points would not matter if it did, because the market would immediately start pricing the next one.
SilverTrade can take the metals conclusion without buying every political adjective.Schiff’s order of crash is bonds first, stocks second, official 2 percent never. “We’ve been lied to by the government, and we’re continuing to be lied to. All prices are going to keep going up because the government is going to keep creating inflation because politically they’ve got no alternative. They can’t accept the reality.”
If copper still has to rally 60 percent in dollar terms just to look average versus gold, and if gold itself is going higher, then the industrial complex and the monetary metals are not fighting each other.
They are both pricing a currency that is being spent on war, interest, and a target the Fed has missed for more than five years. The bond market is where that lie meets a bid that can walk away. Equities are the trailer.
