The Hong Kong macro and metals analyst known as KingKong9888 said the Treasury market is already voting and Washington is still pretending it has the gavel. “We are now in a stage I call ultimate denial.”
Eric’s exhibit A was the 10 year note. “Just yesterday, the interest rate on 10 year US Treasury bonds rose to its highest percentage in the past 19 years. This indicates, to me, that there may not be enough demand for U.S. Treasury bonds.”
The debt stock is the fuse. Official debt is about $40 trillion and still climbing. Service that pile near 5 percent and the coupon bill starts to rival or beat defense.Yeung’s read on the last Fed move is not independence theater. “The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike may just be a public relations move to show the public and the market that the Fed is in control.” Hike into that math and the deficit blows wider. Cut into inflation and the currency pays.
Either path, more paper has to be sold.
Crypto’s bounce, in his view, is not proof the system is healthy. It may be the last warning light that liquidity is being fed in the dark. For now he does not call an imminent collapse. He calls fragility with a smile painted on it.
The East is not waiting for a press conference. Yeung’s core story is the Global South, led by China, stepping off Treasuries and building a second set of pipes. Hong Kong’s new gold center, with physical and unallocated metal settling toward Shanghai, is how you trade gold without asking London for permission. “Trust is undoubtedly the most important factor. China is not trying to dethrone the United States. It is simply trying to create an alternative system to diversify its risks fundamentally.” That is why official gold buying is not jewelry. Central banks take delivery because paper IOUs need a referee when counterparties stop believing each other. “The only logical explanation is that they know a new financial system will be introduced alongside dollar denominated US Treasury bonds, and that the primary guarantee will be physical gold.”Hidden buying, he says, can run a multiple of the advertised tonnes. The chart that looks like a vertical stack is also the price of gold running from $2,000 toward $4,000. Volume and mark to market both matter.
His one liner for the collateral problem? “Physical gold is king when no one trusts anyone else.”
On Fort Knox rumors he is less conspiratorial than the comment section. He believes the United States still has the 8,133 tonnes on the books. A country with the printing press and the army, he argues, can get metal back if it ever left.The scare is not an empty vault. The scare is a world that no longer wants the paper that vault was supposed to back.
The Middle East is the accelerator, not the origin. Japan and the United Kingdom take the first hit, then dollar dependent South, then Europe. China and America feel it last.Iran still has the Strait. Yeung says that lever rusts over 10 to 15 years as China floods its cities with electric cars and oil’s political premium fades. Russia and China vetoing Iran sanctions is not a mystery.
Frozen Russian reserves taught the lesson. “China and Russia simply do not trust the United States and the West.” The war, he estimates, pulled de dollarization forward. “The Iranian crisis may have added another five years. So, whatever was going to happen in ten years, it’s happening now.”
Silver is the industrial argument with a monetary kicker. America wants factories home. About 70 percent of world silver refining sits in China, a dirty business the United States has to pay up to copy. “I’m optimistic about silver simply because the US is trying to relocate manufacturing. A silver price below $50 is unsustainable.”He can see $80 to $100 as a working zone. Three hundred dollar silver is a squeeze, not a home. As an industrial metal in solar, electronics, and weapons, that print invites a violent giveback. His cycle sketch is ugly and useful. Silver can run from about $60 toward $300, then tag a 50 percent correction toward $150. Leverage is how you turn a bull into a zero. “If you buy it with leverage of 200 or 300, you will lose everything.”
He calls himself neutrally optimistic and mocks the room that treats caution as heresy. “Anything that isn’t overly optimistic is considered pessimistic.” For a decade hold he wants three metals, not a story stock. “Gold, silver, and copper. These are the three minerals I would hold for the next 10 years.”In the miners he likes First Majestic and Hercules Metals because the assets are real and “the share price of both of them is too low.”
Buy the bars on a schedule. Do not let a counterparty become the vault. The Fed can talk. The 10 year already answered.
