One More Dip Under $4,000. Then the Run.
Peter Grandich told Jeremy Szafron on Kitco News that gold may need one more brief drop under $4,000 to set the bottom, then a run back toward the highs of this year and on to records in 2028. Gold bugs, he said, will not like the first part.
“A short visit below the 4000 level from here, which is not much, I think it will psychologically establish a strong bottom that gold needs to enter 2027 to come back and challenge the highs recorded earlier this year and move towards record levels in 2028.”
He sold before the drop. Last time he sat with Szafron, gold was around $3,000 and he said do not set a ceiling. It went above $5,500. At the start of this year the move was parabolic, emotion was one way, and the numbers piled up every day. He got out of almost everything except one arrow. Now the sentiment has flipped 180 degrees. People think the rush is over, that high rates or the dollar will kill it. That is the setup he wants.
“Now we have a lot of people who feel that the gold rush is basically over. High interest rates will kill him, if not the dollar and many other things, and I’d better get out.”
China shops for gold. America shops on credit. On weekends their malls are full of people buying the metal. Ours are full of people buying things they do not need and cannot afford. He bets on the side with the money: central banks that keep buying and do not flip it for a trade. Rising rates killing gold is the myth. Computers and algorithms set a lot of the short term price. Humans still mark the ends of moves, and the surrender comments are the tell.
The stock market is the part that changed in three days. He had been saying a crash was unlikely. Not anymore. The market is weaker than the record highs suggest. This summer he cut his family’s holdings to two shares and moved the rest to cash and Treasury bills. When the banks turn down, trouble follows. A 10 year Treasury yield above 6 percent is the signal that a financial crisis has hit. America may struggle to pay its interest in years, not decades. Japan will eventually have to choose itself over United States bonds. He expects no hike in October and one in December.
Copper could hit $7 before 2027. Canadian mining is a lifetime opportunity. Management is the one thing that makes a junior. Riverboat Pete has a shopping list. He is waiting on uranium. The lesson that cost him millions, twice, is the one he does not want to relearn. Private credit stress is spreading. AI and robotics change the jobs picture. A major food crisis is a risk he sees. The asset that survives a government that wants more is the one you can hold.
Short term there is a little pessimism. Beyond a few weeks or a couple of months he wants a very positive attitude toward gold. The dip under $4,000, if it comes, is the bottom he is waiting for, not the top. Then the run.
