Commodity Culture host Jesse Day sat down with Levi Gunter, Growth Manager at OneGold and APMEX, to unpack the sharp drop in precious metals amid broader market turbulence. Gunter described the session’s selloff as part of a larger picture rather than an isolated crash. A better than expected U.S. jobs number reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could hike rates later in the year, reversing the rate cut narrative that had driven last year’s massive rally.
Gold posted its best year since 1979 with a gain of more than 64 percent, only for markets to flip once higher oil prices and inflation forced a reassessment. By May, globally listed gold ETFs had already shed the equivalent of about 15 tons. September brought the first 25 basis point hike, Fed projections that core inflation would not reach 2 percent until closer to 2030, and a hotter than expected CPI reading of 3.7 percent.
As of the interview, gold sat roughly 25 percent off its highs while the 10 year Treasury hovered just above 5 percent and the 30 year touched levels not seen since 2002.
Gunter drew clear parallels to the 1970s bull market. Gold fell about 50 percent from 1974 to 1976 before surging more than eight times off those lows to reach 850 dollars by 1980. He noted that the Fed thought it had inflation under control then, only for the narrative to shift dramatically. “I think we could see a further one. I don’t know that it’d be as dramatic as the ’70s,” he said, adding that the broader fundamentals remain intact even if the bottom has not yet arrived. Conflict in the Middle East and energy price shocks supplied additional historical rhyme.
China continues to treat the pullback as a buying opportunity. The country added 21 tons in the prior month, its largest purchase in three years and the 23rd consecutive month of accumulation. Since central banks began buying in earnest after 2022, roughly one out of every four to five ounces of gold has gone to official sector buyers. Ninety percent of those central banks that purchased gold last year cited its performance during crises or its role as an inflation hedge.
Gunter observed that China is “also bargain hunters like we are” and paused purchases in 2024 while prices ran higher before resuming. “Anytime one of the largest and most patient buyers of gold like that treats this pullback as a buying opportunity, the retail public should probably take note.”
On silver, Gunter acknowledged the pain for stackers after the metal peaked near 121 dollars in January and then fell roughly 50 to 55 percent. He reminded viewers that silver is typically two to two and a half times as volatile as gold and tends to trend in the same direction, only harder. While he was unsure whether a technical bottom had formed, he said the move made historical sense and that levels above 50 dollars still represent territory many longtime holders once considered unreachable.
Gunter framed the current drawdown as temporary against a backdrop of intact long term drivers.
