Michael Oliver Does Not Apologize for the $300 Silver Call as Gold Correction Mirrors 2008 Buy Point
Michael Oliver told GoldSilver host Megan King Diaz that the current pullback in gold and silver looks like the 2008 break that turned into one of the best buying opportunities of the cycle.
Gold has fallen about 29 percent so far compared with a 35 percent drop in 2008. Silver has given back roughly half its gains in a move that is larger than gold but still smaller than the 56 percent decline seen seventeen years earlier.
Oliver has been long term bullish on both metals since early 2016 and said nothing in the present decline has changed that view. He noted that annual momentum never broke the way it did after the 2011 highs so the major uptrend remains intact.
Oliver made clear he is not walking back earlier statements about silver. He said he has discussed higher targets in interviews over the past year and still sees technical evidence that silver can make another vertical move once it leaves the present congestion zone.
Michael described the recent two day drop followed by months of sideways action as the setup that clears weak hands. When the next advance begins there will be few sellers left and the metal can rise in a vacuum. Oliver expects silver to outperform gold on the next leg higher the same way it has historically screamed more on both the upside and the downside.
He compared the current environment with 2008 when gold recovered its high within weeks after the Federal Reserve launched quantitative easing. Stocks continued lower into March 2009 while gold and the miners advanced.
Oliver argued the same dynamic is developing now because bond markets face sovereign debt stress that removes the traditional safe haven alternative. He pointed out that large asset managers who cannot hold physical bullion are already buying the biggest mining names. The gold miners have fallen from roughly 25 percent of an ounce of gold to about 4 percent and he sees room for them to double from current levels near 8 percent.
Oliver framed the entire correction as an intermediate event inside an ongoing bull market rather than a reason to abandon the thesis.
