Central Banks Will Not Stop Stacking Gold as Bonds Lose Their Safe Haven Status, Says Ledn Co Founder
In a recent Commodity Culture interview, Mauricio Di Bartolomeo, co founder of Ledn, argued that a major rotation from long term government bonds into gold is already underway. He sees central banks continuing to buy gold aggressively because they no longer view US debt as a risk free asset.
“I believe the base case for gold and most other assets is appreciation relative to the deficit to call it 8 to 10 percent a year. And so I think that thesis is intact.”
Di Bartolomeo pointed to massive government deficits and the inability of countries to control inflation as the core drivers. He described what he calls the “death of term,” meaning investors and central banks are increasingly unwilling to hold 30 year bonds when future inflation and fiscal discipline are impossible to forecast.
“Nobody wants to hold those reserves anymore because of the inflation profile the United States has. So what I think gold is going to benefit and Bitcoin as well as hard assets in general is there’s going to be what I call the death of term.”
He expects the trend of central bank gold buying to accelerate rather than slow. With 675 tons already purchased this year and China and Poland among the biggest buyers, Di Bartolomeo sees no political will to rein in deficits.
“I see no effort by the part of governments to get these deficits in check. And that’s really what’s got people uneasy about holding long term bonds. And across the board nobody has it under control candidly. Central banks are not going to stop. In fact I think they are still at these levels overloaded or uncomfortably long sovereign debt.”
He framed the shift as a move toward “apolitical assets” that no single government can control or confiscate. Alliances change with elections, he noted, so holding another country’s debt carries growing political risk. Gold and Bitcoin stand out as the two assets that best fit this new reality.
On the lack of a clear wartime premium in gold despite ongoing conflicts, Di Bartolomeo offered a nuanced view. Historically gold rises in wars because other assets crash and governments debase currency to fund fighting. This time equities and real estate have remained resilient, largely due to the AI boom and efforts to keep markets elevated, which has delayed a fuller rotation into gold.
“This is a decimation of the bonds that’s moving into gold, but equities has been holding much stronger than historically around wartime. Nobody expects that there are three active hot war cycles and we have the S&P at all time highs.”
He still expects gold to outperform on a relative basis in the near term as equity markets face pressure.
Di Bartolomeo also discussed the growing role of tokenized gold, particularly products like Tether’s XAUT. Drawing from his experience in Venezuela, he explained how gold backed tokens solve the practical problems of moving and using physical gold while keeping it outside traditional banking systems that governments can restrict.
“A gold backed token is very much a stable coin but for gold. What that does in principle is it creates an issuer. I can take a bar of gold to their vaults in Switzerland. They store it and issue me a token which represents 1 oz of my gold. I can then move that token of gold, use it as collateral, send it, or redeem it back for the physical.”
He contrasted this with traditional gold ETFs that charge ongoing management fees and emphasized the portability and 24 hour transferability of tokenized gold. Ledn is expanding its Bitcoin focused financial services to include gold backed tokens so clients can borrow against, custody, and use both hard assets.
The interview paints a clear picture of a structural shift in global reserve management. With deficits rising and political risks increasing, Di Bartolomeo believes central banks and private investors will keep rotating into gold and other apolitical hard assets. Tokenized gold, in his view, makes that shift practical for everyday holders.
