After previously dialing back an ambitious $6,000 target, Wagner returned with fresh conviction that the correction is over, a major bottom is in place, and the path higher remains wide open.
His new year-end target of $5,000 to $5,100 still represents substantial upside from current levels, and his personal actions speak even louder than his words.
Wagner was unequivocal about the market’s turn. “We definitely hit a bottom,” he declared, pointing to a six-week base that formed after gold dipped under $4,000. “And it hasn’t looked back since.”The decisive move came in the first week of August. “We hit a bottom that lasted in terms of time for about a month and a half and then during one week we really had this market move on Monday, 3rd day of August and it hasn’t looked back since.”
What made the breakout so compelling was the chart structure itself. Wagner described a classic descending top with a flat bottom, a pattern that “more times than not” breaks lower in a downtrend. This time it refused.“It did not. And when it broke above that, it did so really with fury.”
He called the first-week-of-August advance “incredible,” lifting gold from just above $4,100 to over $4,400 in short order.
Looking ahead, Wagner laid out a clear roadmap of levels. Major support sits at $4,200. Short-term support rests around $4,350 to $4,357.Gary sees room to retest the prior record territory. “What I’m looking at is if I look at the all-time record highs $5,500 5,400 in that area I think that $5,000 or 5,100 on the high side is what we could get out of this year.”
Wagner’s own positioning underscores his confidence. After decades of trading futures since 1990, he has spent roughly the last ten months focused on accumulation rather than short-term trading. “Actually what I’ve done for about the last say 10 months is I’ve gone heavily into accumulation for storage… You know I’m not going to touch it.”He began buying physical metal near $1,500, added again around $2,000, and has continued dollar-cost averaging on the way higher and through the recent pullback. Physical ownership, he emphasized, is for the long run.
Silver has been the standout performer. “Silver’s been, you know, the real story here. It’s up more than twice what gold is today.” Wagner noted that silver often amplifies gold’s moves, and the recent outperformance reinforces the broader precious metals strength.The gold-to-silver ratio has already begun tightening, a typical feature of healthy bull phases.
Interestingly, one traditional catalyst has lost its punch. “The one that used to work that doesn’t seem to have the same punch is wars or geopolitical uncertainty,” Wagner observed. “The US went to war with Iran and gold went down, silver went down.”Markets are now laser-focused on interest rates and the new Fed leadership rather than geopolitical headlines.
On the policy front, Wagner anticipates a quarter-point rate hike in September and perhaps a total of half a point by year-end. He views this as far less hawkish than the market had priced earlier. “That’s not really all that hawkish right now… his bite is smaller than his bark.”
For those who bought near the prior highs, Wagner offered reassurance. Depending on entry points within the recent base, “they’re in great shape.” The technical evidence, the furious breakout, the confirmed bottom, and the ongoing physical accumulation by a trader with more than four decades of experience all point in the same direction: the correction is finished and the next leg higher is underway. Wagner’s message is clear and unapologetically constructive.Gold has found its footing, the chart has broken out with real power, and $5,000 to $5,100 remains firmly in play before the calendar turns. For long-term holders and new buyers alike, the setup looks compelling.
