Chris Vermeulen told Craig Hemke on Sprott Money that gold remains vulnerable. Key support sits near $3,900. If that fails, he sees a possible move toward $3,600. Bitcoin and the major stock indexes are showing the stronger momentum. Precious metals are struggling to attract capital. Watch the technical support and the Fibonacci levels.
August was the excitement. Gold and silver were rising, the odds of a Fed hike were falling, and the dollar was soft. September flipped it. Metals fell, hike odds rose, and the dollar climbed.
Vermeulen’s bond read is that the short term spike in Treasury yields has peaked and a multi week decline is likely. TLT printed a burnout gap on October 1 after heavy volume, the kind of panic selling that often marks a short term bottom. A bounce in TLT toward 80 or 81 would not surprise him. He still treats the longer term bond trend as down. A bounce inside a downtrend can become a bear flag instead of a turn. He is not eager to buy the bounce.
“I expect returns to decline. We will see bond prices like TLT rebound.”
Lower yields, a softer crude oil tape, and a weaker dollar are the fuel he wants for the Nasdaq and QQQ. Money is flowing into stocks. That is where the excitement is. QQQ is working a bullish flag. The measured move is about 3 percent to the 618 level, and the larger flag points to roughly 14 percent if the pattern holds. Semiconductors and the Big Seven are breaking out. The S&P is about 50 percent AI weighted, which is why he prefers those names. An Anthropic IPO, if it lands, renews the bid.
“Stocks, money is moving towards stocks and I think that’s the source of the excitement.”
Bitcoin is the other resurgence. It is turning bullish while gold and silver fight for bids. For the metals investor the message is technical. Support near $3,900 is the line. Lose it and $3,600 is the target he has on the board. Hold it and the Fibonacci levels above become the map. Capital is choosing Nasdaq and Bitcoin for now.
Precious metals get the next major move when that money rotates back, not before the support holds.
