Wall Street money manager and financial analyst Ed Dowd of PhinanceTechnologies.com warned at the beginning of April that the economy was already rolling over. 
He said “Private Credit Problems are Ending the Party.”  

Just 10 days ago, Black Rock and other firms with so-called private credit are  locking up investors’ cash because of a wave of redemptions. 

Dowd predicted this, and the sagging economy is not going to be getting any better anytime soon.  If you thought private credit was a drag on the economy, then the Iran war is going to be a boat anchor. 
Dowd says, “The longer this situation persists, the likelihood of oil drifting higher is going to happen.  We have two scenarios, and one is oil peaks out at $125, and this gets resolved by May.  Inflation would peak around 5%. . .. We are at the point now, if this does not get resolved soon, oil prices could continue to drift higher. . .. We have a second scenario where we get $200 to $250 a barrel oil, which was our worst-case scenario.  If that happens, inflation will peak out at around 11% by our models...”