40-50% Market Crash Still Coming in 2027! -Gareth Soloway

His opening warning was blunt.
“The hundred year cycle is coming up in a few years. And I hate to say it, but I do think there will be another equivalent to the Great Depression.”

He added that officials already see it coming.

“They know about this coming depression. They’re just trying to prolong it long enough that they can either cash out or at least be out of office before it hits.”

Makori pressed him on his standing call for a 40 to 50 percent stock market correction in 2027.
Soloway said the outlook still stands.

“Yeah, abs. And it still is. And I’ll tell you why. It’s all putting us on a trajectory that at this point is really undoable.”

Warsh talks hawkish while Treasury fights yields

The interview opened on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. Warsh kept the 2 percent inflation target “firm and fixed,” said inflation remains too high, and warned that if prices are not moving toward target “clearly and at sufficient speed,” the Fed has “work to do.”

Markets heard hawkish. Odds of a September rate hike flipped toward roughly 60 percent after the speech.
Soloway agreed the tone was tougher than expected. He still thinks a weak jobs report could pull hike odds back.

The more important clash, he said, is between Warsh and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Treasury has been trying to hold down long yields with larger bond buybacks.
Warsh then said the thing that sends yields back up.

“They’re going to have to come out with a bazooka. But then how does that offset what the Federal Reserve is saying about prices and getting essentially control of inflation?”

Buybacks going from $2 billion to $4 billion, he noted, only moved yields for a single day. He expects the Fed to hold rates for the rest of 2026 and possibly cut in 2027 after the damage shows up.

Debt, AI leverage, and a 2027 break

Soloway tied the crash call to $40 trillion of national debt, de dollarization, yield curve intervention, and circular financing inside the AI boom. Nvidia and vendor financing sit at the center of that bubble story. He flagged an OpenAI IPO as a possible timing signal for a top and said names like Micron could see brutal drawdowns in a risk off wave.

“You’re going to have this reckoning day with all of this debt that’s been accumulated. There will be some sort of massive corrective move.”

On policy, he described a patient that can only be kept alive so long.

“You can’t undo it. It’s a matter of how many levers they can pull to keep the patient alive before it all comes tumbling down.”

Oil, in his view, could slump toward $50 as early as the first quarter of 2027 if growth cracks. Chinese technology and AI stocks are the contrarian long he likes over the next six months, not the crowded US mega cap trade.

Gold first, silver later.

Soloway is constructive on gold even after the Warsh scare. He currently favors gold over silver on a pullback basis. His long range gold target is the line that will travel:
“Is anyone going to remember that they bought gold at 4,000 or 3500 or 4500? If gold is at 13,000 or 15,000 by 2030 or 2031, I think at that point you’re just happy you got in and you have a physical asset that’s offsetting the depreciation of the dollar.”

The published show notes put his working gold projection near $13,000 between 2029 and 2031.

Bitcoin, he said, could break down toward $35,000 in a 2027 equity crash, then potentially run above $250,000 around 2030 to 2031 if the monetary reset trade kicks in after the washout.

He also walked through a gold cycle calculator his firm uses and argued that yield curve control talk and gold standard theories are the political layer sitting under the charts. The government, he said, already knows the endgame:

“The government already knows, guys. And again, not to be shocking here, but the government and those people in charge, they know the endgame here.”

The investor takeaway

Soloway is not telling people to sit in cash and miss every rally. Makori even needled him for being the guy who can look early and miss upside.

His answer is sequence. Hold physical gold as insurance against dollar decay. Treat 2027 as the high risk window for stocks and speculative crypto.

Treat 2029 to 2031 as the window where crisis policy and a possible monetary reset could send gold into five figures.

The hundred year clock, in his telling, does not care about a hawkish speech. It cares about debt that cannot be serviced without either inflation, repression, or a crash. He thinks another Great Depression style event clusters around 2030. Until then, the job of policy is delay.

“They’re just trying to prolong it.”