Gary Wagner Says Gold Has Likely Bottomed While Silver’s $50 Level Becomes the Strongest Floor in History
Gold just broke below $4,000 and is now cheaper than it was a year ago after a brutal correction from January highs above $5,600. Yet veteran technical analyst Gary Wagner of TheGoldForecast.com believes the worst is over and that a multi year impulsive rally is setting up for late 2027 and 2028.
“I also think we’ve probably passed this harsh correction,” Wagner told Kitco News. “I think there is a very good chance that we have reached the bottom of this correction or are close to it.”
He is watching $3,884 as the key line in the sand. A hold there opens the door for a recovery toward $4,200 to $4,400 by year end. A break below that level would put his numbers in question, with no strong support until around $3,500, a price he does not expect to see.
Wagner’s Elliott Wave analysis shows the correction that began after the January peak is nearing completion. Once it ends, he expects a powerful five wave advance that stretches into late 2027 and 2028.
The selling has been dominated by computer driven funds. “It constitutes a huge percentage,” Wagner said of algorithmic trading. “Hedge funds, the size of the asset classes they invest in… cannot do so without the help of computer analysis and automated operators.”
Meanwhile central banks did the opposite. They bought 42 percent more gold last quarter while purchases of bars and coins fell about 19 percent, according to the World Gold Council.
On silver, Wagner was even more constructive. The metal’s double top at roughly $50 in 1980 and 2011 has finally been broken. What was once a ceiling is now acting as a floor.
“For this reason, support and resistance are two sides of the same coin. There was resistance here… It can now easily be converted into support. This is why people are so enthusiastic about silver.”
He called $50 “a stronger floor for silver than it has ever been” and expects the metal to outperform gold on a percentage basis next year. His year end target is near $55, with the potential for a strong move into 2027 if the level holds.
“I actually think that if silver finds a foothold here, it should outperform gold in terms of percentage gains next year rather than the other way around.”
Wagner also noted that the expected December Federal Reserve rate hike is already priced in. Higher rates create headwinds for gold, but they do not break the metal when geopolitical and monetary risks remain elevated.
The takeaway is clear. Algos are dumping paper gold while central banks keep stacking the real thing. Silver has turned a multi decade ceiling into support. And Wagner’s charts point to a major new advance once this correction finishes.
Physical gold and silver remain the only assets that cannot be printed, rehypothecated, or algorithmically liquidated out of existence. The charts and the central banks appear to agree.
