AI Bubble Chart Mirrors 1998 Tech Peak as Junk Yields Spike, Rafi Farber Warns
Rafi Farber of End Game Investor argues that the semiconductor index, now closely tied to AI, is tracing a path nearly identical to its run into the 2000 dot com peak. He presents side by side charts of the SOX from late 2024 through 2026 and from 1998 through late 2000. The patterns match closely, including a sharp doubling that took the index from roughly 7,000 to 14,500 in about two months once AI investment accelerated in early 2026.
Farber notes that Anthropic is scheduled to go public in November at a valuation near $2 trillion, a figure equal to roughly one fourth of the money printed between 2020 and 2022. He compares such extreme IPO valuations to the tallest skyscrapers built at the peak of prior credit bubbles and says the AI complex is one of several potential dominoes that could trigger a broader financial crisis.
Farber’s core thesis is that the order of the next failure is secondary. Once the first major domino falls, whether it is the AI bubble, junk debt, Treasuries, or something else, there will be no effective rescue of the current fiat system. “Once the first one falls, once there is one more financial crisis, that’s it. We’re at end game and we will move to a gold and silver money,” he says. He expects capital to reorganize around physical metals after a period of significant disruption.
On the debt side, Farber highlights that CCC rated junk bond yields have broken above 18 percent, with the most recent reading at 18.17 percent as of October 23, 2026. Spreads versus investment grade debt are approaching levels last seen during the 2020 lockdown period. Although CCC bonds represent only about 8.6 percent of the corporate bond market, a historically low share, he argues that a panic in even this slice would be enough to push other debt markets into stress.
He also notes that bank discount window usage, which he calls the bank bailout window, remains elevated near $9 billion after peaking higher, one of the highest levels since the 2023 banking stress. Further increases in the coming weeks would, in his view, signal that a crisis is close.
Farber observes that gold mining stocks remain near highs when measured in gold terms, and that the recent correction has not significantly reduced their value in ounces. While gold and silver themselves appear to be searching for a double bottom and price action feels boring, he says periods of lost hope often mark intermediate bottoms.
The combination of an AI chart that mirrors 1998 to 2000, rising junk yields, and still elevated emergency bank funding leads him to conclude that the next financial crisis will not be contained and will accelerate the shift toward gold and silver as money.
These warnings align closely with the views Farber shared earlier this month on the SilverTrade Insider. In that discussion he argued that hyperinflation has already begun, that a bond market crisis is unfolding, and that silver will approach infinity faster than gold once the crackup boom fully arrives.
Farber’s full Insider Interview Can Be Seen Here:
The same logic of uncontainable dominoes and a forced transition to physical metal as the unit of account runs through both conversations. Farber continues to frame the present period as the end game for the dollar system, with any further stress in AI related debt or junk credit simply accelerating the outcome he has already outlined.
