Gold then dropped more than 3 percent. On Monday it was still softer even as crude jumped after US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz. That sequence looks ugly on a screen. Streible still likes the long side of gold and silver. The chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures did not flip bearish. He called the move a pullback after an incredible run into resistance. Silver stalled at the 100 day moving average and could not close above it. Gold teetered around the 200 day.
A hawkish Fed chair with little nuance was the obvious catalyst. “It just made sense that we were due for some kind of small pullback.”
With clients lighter and others on the sidelines, he now sees “a great opportunity with this pullback here. Start sticking your toe in the water.”
He is long both metals. Many of his clients are too. A September rate hike, if it comes, is not the end of the bull case. It is the setup for the next leg.“We do believe that the Federal Reserve if they do raise rates that it will be a policy mistake here and ultimately it will need to be undone in the near future.”
When that undoing arrives, he said gold accelerates.
The inflation the Fed wants to crush is the wrong kind. Fifty percent tariffs, Iranian strikes lifting crude, wheat at three year highs after an attack on a Black Sea port. Those are supply shocks.“Rate hikes, they’re designed to crush the demand, but they don’t manufacture more oil or wheat.” Hiking into that mix, he argued, creates economic damage without fixing the shortage.
Middle East headlines no longer dominate his book the way they did earlier in the year. The market has heard the wolf too many times. Gold and silver, he said, are now moving more on energy prices, policy error risk, and the data than on each new drone alert. Silver remains the higher beta trade and the one with the uglier supply math. Consecutive years of deficit. Seventy percent of mine supply arrives as a byproduct of copper, lead, and zinc. Higher prices do not flip on new primary mines overnight. Solar, EVs, and the grid keep eating metal. Gold ETFs have finally turned positive on the year.Silver ETFs were still down about 7 percent even after a 3.11 million ounce add last week. Buyers are showing up on dips. “That’s why I believe that we are going to start moving consistently higher.”
The levels he watches are simple. He does not want to see 60 taken out. The 50 day sits near 62.68. Treasury announcement date support was 63.25. Overhead, a close above the 100 day opens the 200 day at 73.65.“That’s where gold really accelerates higher and moves higher and then it’ll bring silver up with it.”
Seasonality is the quiet tailwind he wants into year end. August strength has shown up in 13 of the last 15 years.Then September 29 through October gold has also been up in 13 of 15 years, with a typical grind higher from Thanksgiving into January. “I like the seasonal tailwinds.”
Hawkish talk created the dip. Soft data, in his view, turns the Fed from hawkish to neutral to dovish.
“It has all the makeup and the character there for a nice rally until the end of the year.”
Miners are another sleeve. Blue Line Capital runs a 10 stock mining book with tight position limits and rotation between gold, copper names such as Southern Copper, and royalties.
Bitcoin is not in that kit. After 25 years on a commodity desk he has never used it in a transaction. When silver hit 100 he sold 200 ounces and paved a driveway. That, to him, is money. Bitcoin is not.Streible is not calling a top because gold gave back 150 dollars after a 600 dollar run. He trimmed into resistance, marked the pullback, and is putting toes back in the water.A policy mistake that has to be reversed is still his bullish catalyst.
Seasonality into October is still his calendar. Silver’s deficit is still his structural argument.
The dip is the entry, not the eulogy.
