Submitted by Stewart Thomson:
Fiat does have good days and even good years, but over time it fails miserably against gold.
Double-click to enlarge this weekly chart of gold versus fiat. 
A flag-like rectangular drift is in play, and it favors the bulls.
- The price target zone of the pattern is arguably $8000-$9000.
- Gold market analysts are trying to figure out what created the flag pattern and what the catalyst will be for the next leg up.
The mainstream media and bank analyst narrative has been (and continues to be) that America’s war in Iran has driven up the price of oil, and that means the Fed might raise rates.
Since gold pays no interest and fiat does, fiat has strengthened against gold.
- Some analysts believe that additional pressure comes from Iranian and Russian central banks selling gold to manage their war-ravaged nations’ loss of fiat revenues and reserves.
- In addition, the Indian government has started taxing gold bullion banks on their imports, asked citizens to stop buying gold, and is also considering hiking the main import duty again.
- While the Fed has engaged in some QE this year, it’s relatively minor.
- Note that during the years 2010-2011, the Fed’s balance sheet grew relatively modestly, yet gold soared. In 2024-2025, the Fed’s balance sheet shrunk, and yet gold mauled fiat. Why?
- Commercial “QE” (bank loans) is relentless and dwarfs government QE.
Growth of the private money supply is a main driver of the endless downwards spiral of fiat against gold.
- Ultimately, gold is a complex form of money, with a variety of price drivers at work. Asian import duties, festivals, wars, interest rates, and bank loan growth are all factors that affect the fiat price of gold.
- It can be argued (persuasively) that gold isn’t really predictable most of the time. Many/most analysts end up going blue in the face trying to predict what, quite frankly, can’t be predicted.
- This unpredictability itself is a big reason why billions of savvy Asian and Western gold bugs simply focus on getting more of this “mightiest of monies” when it goes on sale.
- A daily focus on the big picture is critical for investors as inflation, tariffs, the 2021-2025 war cycle, a wildly overvalued stock market, debt ceiling horror, and empire transition dominate the investing landscape. Thanks!
- While gold’s next move isn’t predictable most of the time, zones for buy and sell action can be identified… for both investors and gamblers. It’s unknown if gold will go to a specific zone, but if it does, metals market players must buy. From these zones, dramatic outperformance of the miners occurs.
- On that exciting note,
. I often get asked the question, “When will the miners outperform gold?”. The answer is, “Whenever they reach a buy zone. From there, dramatic outperformance occurs!”.
- Looking for long-term outperformance of Nasdaq “hottie” stocks against the Dow isn’t realistic, but if they are bought on dips that take the Dow into key support, they can produce stunning gains in just a month or two… gains that the market only achieves over many years.
- The same is true for gold stocks, and more so! My rule of thumb is that the miners (gold, silver, and copper) can give investors and gamblers 20% (and more) in unleveraged fiat money gains in just one or two months from the time of their buy.
- GDX has already given investors two bouts of dramatic outperformance against gold this year, and a third one (in play now) could bring even bigger gains for gold stock gamblers.
- Silver stock enthusiasts have also experienced fabulous gains (20%+) from the two investor buy zones this year.
- The buildout of AI and robots is turning copper into oil 2.0. The mantra, “Drill, Baby, Drill!” could soon become, “Drill, Bonehead, Drill”… unless the drills are for copper.
- The buy zones for copper stock enthusiasts are the same as for gold and silver stocks; I laid out the gold $4400 support zone and the Dow 45,000 support zone as fantastic zones to buy the miners before the price dipped into those zones.
- The price of mining stock ETFs and individual miners stops falling at almost all key support zones for gold and the Dow… and from there it surges dramatically higher.
- The bottom line: Gold is the world’s greatest money and gold, silver, and copper stocks are the ultimate outperformance vehicles… provided they are bought with discipline and care!
Thanks! Cheers Stewart Thomson Galactic Updates
