Every Crisis Is Arriving at Once
Peter Schiff titled the new episode of The Peter Schiff Show with no room for a shrug.
Every crisis he has warned about is converging. This is the end game. The tape this week, he said, is not a garden variety scare. Bonds sold off on bad news. That is the tell.
The 30 year Treasury touched 5.62 percent. The 10 year closed at 5.26 percent. Two weeks earlier, 5 percent was supposed to be the ceiling. Consumer confidence collapsed to 81.9, the lowest reading in 12 years and worse than the pandemic trough. Job openings missed. Yields rose anyway. Weak data used to mean a bid for Treasuries. This week it meant a bid for exit.
Schiff’s line on what comes next is blunt. If Friday’s jobs number is weak and bonds still fall, the orderly grind lower becomes a crash.
Gold dropped about $170 and he called that the market getting the story backwards. Money leaving the bond market does not hide in the dollar forever. It looks for the last safe haven standing. That, in his book, is gold.
Housing is the bigger chapter. Mortgage rates sit near 7.4 percent and he sees them headed past 8. The 40 year refinance machine is dead. No more cheap refis. No cash out. No wealth effect from a house that only works when rates fall. Homes at five times income. Down payments at 13.8 percent. Fannie and Freddie shares are down about 75 percent while the government buys more mortgage bonds to paper over the break. Neither party will name a real cut. Affordability speeches bounce off the math.
He walked the same loop he has walked for years and said the loop is now closed. High debt plus high rates. A housing bubble that is larger than 2008 on the price to income test. Deficits nobody will cut. AI sold as the miracle that grows the country out of $40 trillion. The Fed out of tricks. Socialism messaging that cannot pay the interest bill either.
“This is the end game.”
That is the sentence he put on the title card. Not a 2008 rerun with a bank bailout. A sovereign credit problem where the government is the risk, not the savior.
Get your plan B in order, he said at the close. Plan B, for Schiff, has never been another Treasury. It is gold, silver, and a portfolio that does not assume the 40 year bond bull market is coming back to refinance your life.
The episode’s use is the sequence. Confidence cracks. Bonds ignore the bad print. Mortgages lock the housing ATM. Politicians promise growth and deliver more debt. Gold gets sold because people still think a rate spike is dollar bullish. Then the money that fled duration has nowhere left to stand except metal. That is the convergence. That is why he used the words end game.
