Michael Oliver sat down with our friend Craig Hemke on Sprott Money as the fourth quarter opened and refused to treat the gold and silver selloff as a top.
His momentum work, built on structures rather than price lines, says the bull market is not finished.
The correction looks more like exhaustion of weak hands than a break in the trend.
“I think what’s about to occur is far more meteoric and vertical than anybody expects.”
That is the line Sprott put on the episode. Oliver’s map from the historical structures he tracks points to gold approaching $8,000 to $9,000 and a long term silver target around $500. He compared the current silver dip with the 2008 correction, the one that cleared the decks and was followed by silver dramatically outrunning gold. Same shape, he argues. Different scale.
The tell he wants watched is not the spot price. It is the miners. Gold and silver mining stocks are starting to beat bullion. After a base that stretched for years, that relative breakout is how he reads large money rotating in before the metals themselves go vertical. Names that have already snapped back toward their highs, while silver has not fully repaired its own, are the advance party. If managers who have ignored the sector for a decade finally have to own it, the percentage moves in the equities can outrun the ounces.
He walked Hemke through how he reads momentum. Orthodox charts, in his view, lie at the turns. Support, resistance, and breakouts show up after the structure has already shifted. The recent pullback, measured that way, is nearing exhaustion rather than starting a bear market.
The other half of the interview is the reason the bid exists. Bonds and the financial sector are the risk, not the refuge. Banking stress, private credit, and a government bond market that no longer clears without a buyer of last resort are the backdrop. Debt and monetary pressure, he said, strengthen the case for gold. A banking problem that forces the printer is the fuel for the meteoric leg, not a reason to sell the metal.
Oliver’s closer is positioning, not a lottery ticket. On the same day the episode dropped he wrote that he is not buying out of the money calls into a hoped for triple. He is positioned, unleveraged, in a market he thinks can multiply. The difference matters if the path is violent both ways before the vertical part arrives.
The interview’s use is simple. Do not confuse a 2008 style washout with the end of the move. Watch the miners versus the metal. If that spread keeps widening while bonds and banks keep cracking, Oliver’s case is that the real advance has not started, and that the next leg is the one price charts will only name after it is already gone.
