Something is happening under the surface in silver.
Is this week’s explosive move FRONTRUNNING a Silver Price Floor announcement!?!
Former Head of Commodities at JP Morgan Robert Gotlieb warns that something is going on under the surface in the silver market:
“SOMETHING MAJOR IS BREWING IN #SILVER
Silver is firmly back on my radar screen, some of what’s happening I understand… and some of it raises more questions than answers.
Four days ago, I posted:
Silver is starting to move, and positioning is driving it.
At the time:
Crude was moving lower
Risk sentiment was improving
Large open interest in SLV calls (70 / 70.50 strikes)
Over 150,000 contracts
Silver responded explosively
Trading around $81, up ~5% on the day
Fast forward to today…
We’ve now:
Blown through the 75 SLV strike
Trading +6%+
Approaching $86 July CME futures
That is not normal price action!
What’s driving this?
Yes, positioning matters:
Those SLV call strikes clearly played a role
But here’s where it gets interesting…
OTC vs CME - Something doesn’t add up
OTC London forwards now very liquid
Contango from 1 week → 5 years
1-month OTC ~ 3.25% / 3.75% (vs ~-30% last October)
The tightness that drove last year’s move is gone
Flows tell the story
~221M oz has moved out of CME warehouses
Metal flowing back to London & China
Tariff fears?
Largely dismissed
That should have eased pressure
But then look at EFP…
Friday close: 51-55 cents (~4.5%) vs OTC ~3.3%
Today: Hearing as high as 85 cents
Now ~73 cents
That’s a massive dislocation
So what’s really going on?
One explanation:
Banks were over-borrowed EFP during tight OTC conditions
Now being forced to cover at a loss
Possible But… The trader in me says:
This feels bigger than just positioning cleanup
Questions I’m asking:
Are we seeing early signs of tariff risk re-emerging?
Is silver’s critical mineral status starting to matter?
Are flows shifting ahead of something not yet visible?
Bottom line:
This move doesn’t fully align with:
OTC structure
Flow normalization
Macro backdrop
Which usually means:
something else is happening under the surface
Would love to hear thoughts from the community:
What are we missing?
Is this just positioning… or something bigger?
Views are my own, for informational and educational purposes only, and not investment advice.”
Former Head of Commodities at JP Morgan Robert Gotlieb warns that something is going on under the surface in the silver market:
“SOMETHING MAJOR IS BREWING IN #SILVER
Silver is firmly back on my radar screen, some of what’s happening I understand… and some of it raises more questions than answers.
Four days ago, I posted:
Silver is starting to move, and positioning is driving it.
At the time:
Crude was moving lower
Risk sentiment was improving
Large open interest in SLV calls (70 / 70.50 strikes)
Over 150,000 contracts
Silver responded explosively
Trading around $81, up ~5% on the day
Fast forward to today…
We’ve now:
Blown through the 75 SLV strike
Trading +6%+
Approaching $86 July CME futures
That is not normal price action!
What’s driving this?
Yes, positioning matters:
Those SLV call strikes clearly played a role
But here’s where it gets interesting…
OTC vs CME - Something doesn’t add up
OTC London forwards now very liquid
Contango from 1 week → 5 years
1-month OTC ~ 3.25% / 3.75% (vs ~-30% last October)
The tightness that drove last year’s move is gone
Flows tell the story
~221M oz has moved out of CME warehouses
Metal flowing back to London & China
Tariff fears?
Largely dismissed
That should have eased pressure
But then look at EFP…
Friday close: 51-55 cents (~4.5%) vs OTC ~3.3%
Today: Hearing as high as 85 cents
Now ~73 cents
That’s a massive dislocation
So what’s really going on?
One explanation:
Banks were over-borrowed EFP during tight OTC conditions
Now being forced to cover at a loss
Possible But… The trader in me says:
This feels bigger than just positioning cleanup
Questions I’m asking:
Are we seeing early signs of tariff risk re-emerging?
Is silver’s critical mineral status starting to matter?
Are flows shifting ahead of something not yet visible?
Bottom line:
This move doesn’t fully align with:
OTC structure
Flow normalization
Macro backdrop
Which usually means:
something else is happening under the surface
Would love to hear thoughts from the community:
What are we missing?
Is this just positioning… or something bigger?
Views are my own, for informational and educational purposes only, and not investment advice.”
